1,813 open wells—but only 20 Gulf campaigns are in a pre-execution well sales window

The easiest way to overstate the Gulf P&A market is to count wells and call the result a pipeline. The Gulf campaign snapshot documented in our operator-exposure analysis contains 1,813 wells without observed permanent-abandonment completion across 420 campaigns not marked completed. That is a substantial remaining inventory. It is not 1,813 open jobs.

Only 20 campaigns in the same dataset sat in a pre-execution well sales window: 16 Engage and four Bid. Another 162 were early enough to Scout, while 176 were already classified as Execution for well work. The difference between the big inventory number and the small pre-execution window is where qualification happens.

What “open well” means in this analysis

GOMDecom connects BSEE borehole, eWell permit and End of Operations records around a campaign. A well remains open in the product’s observable-scope count when permanent-abandonment completion has not been confirmed in those monitored records.

That definition is deliberately cautious. It does not mean:

• a permanent-abandonment application has been filed;
• a rig or vessel has been contracted;
• the work is currently budgeted;
• the well has never received temporary-abandonment work; or
• BSEE is late in updating a source record.

It means only that the completion evidence used to close the item has not been observed. The methodology keeps that factual state separate from GOMDecom’s commercial interpretation.

The distinction protects both sides of the analysis. It avoids declaring an obligation complete merely because a permit exists, and it avoids declaring work available merely because completion is absent.

Where the inventory is concentrated

The open-well count is not evenly distributed across the Gulf. Five area codes account for more than half of the total in the active-campaign rollup.

Gulf area	Open wells in tracked campaigns
Main Pass (MP)	269
South Marsh Island (SM)	240
Ship Shoal (SS)	154
South Pass (SP)	153
South Timbalier (ST)	143

Together those areas represent 959 wells, or 52.9% of the 1,813-well inventory. For a P&A provider, that concentration can guide account coverage, crew familiarity and marine-logistics planning. It still cannot define a package.

One operator may combine wells across adjacent blocks. Another may execute a small group under a broader multi-year program. Shared facilities and co-ownership can connect records that look separate in a flat export. Conversely, wells in the same area can require entirely different equipment, barrier designs and commercial relationships.

Geography tells a sales team where density exists. The permit and campaign record tells it whether that density is moving.

The six well sales windows

The 420 non-completed campaign records divide into six well-window judgments:

Well window	Campaigns	Practical reading
Scout	162	Early scope or obligation signals; develop the account
Engage	16	Credible movement makes a focused conversation timely
Bid	4	Strong pre-execution evidence; verify procurement now
Execution	176	Work has started; investigate remaining or adjacent phases
Closed	59	The well phase is no longer an active pursuit in this campaign
None	3	No usable well window for the campaign

The 20 Engage/Bid campaigns are the cleanest current prospecting set for P&A, but even they are not a tender list. The Bid label means a filing or timing signal is strong enough to justify rapid verification. It does not mean BSEE has disclosed an unawarded contract—BSEE does not publish that information.

The 176 Execution campaigns are not worthless. They may contain several wells at different stages, later structure or pipeline phases, or adjacent blocks where an active spread could move next. But a supplier approaching an executing campaign needs a different message from one approaching an early permit: remaining scope and follow-on fit, not a generic offer to perform the work already underway.

Why a permit does not close the qualification gap

An Application for Permit to Modify is one of the strongest public well signals because it records a specific proposed operation. BSEE’s eWell APM query contains applications submitted through the eWell system. A submitted or accepted abandonment filing can move a campaign materially closer to execution.

But a permit still leaves commercial questions unanswered:

• Was the contractor selected before submission?
• Is the operation part of a larger rig program?
• Does the reported start date remain current?
• Has only temporary isolation been approved, or final permanent abandonment?
• Are multiple wells intended to move together?
• Which service components are subcontracted?

Those questions require account intelligence. The regulatory record narrows where to ask them.

Temporary abandonment changes the meaning of “remaining”

A temporarily abandoned well is not the same as an untouched well, and it is not the same as a permanently abandoned one. Under 30 CFR 250.1721, temporary abandonment requires an approved BSEE-0124 application plus specified plugging, testing and protection. The operator does not yet have to sever the casing, remove the wellhead or complete final site clearance.

That means a TA-related record can represent work already performed and an obligation still remaining. It may be a future P&A candidate, but timing depends on whether the well remains necessary for proper lease development or production, the operator’s plan and BSEE’s application of Idle Iron guidance. Our Idle Iron explainer covers the wider regulatory clock.

Commercially, “TA” should prompt a second question: what has already been done, and what remains? Treating every TA reference as a full untouched P&A package inflates scope. Treating it as complete removes real future work.

A better P&A qualification stack

For each candidate campaign, layer the evidence in this order:

1. Completion: which wells have an End of Operations or borehole record confirming permanent abandonment?
2. Permit: which remaining wells have submitted, accepted or commenced abandonment activity?
3. Type: is the record temporary abandonment, permanent abandonment or another modification?
4. Clock: is the lease expired, relinquished or exposed to an Idle Iron schedule?
5. Grouping: which wells plausibly form one mobilization or account program?
6. Fit: does the water depth, access and apparent method match the supplier?
7. Procurement: what can the operator or prime contractor confirm that the public record cannot?

The result is a much smaller and more defensible pursuit list than “1,813 wells.” That is the point. A commercial-intelligence product should remove false urgency, not add it.

The full inventory is useful for territory planning; the 20 pre-execution windows are useful for current investigation; the campaign brief is useful for the call. See how those layers come together in a sample Opportunity Brief.

Sources

• GOMDecom, Gulf campaign snapshot documented in the operator-exposure analysis: opportunity, open-well, area and well-window rollups.
• Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, Data Center, including Borehole, eWell APM and eWell EOR datasets.
• Electronic Code of Federal Regulations, 30 CFR Part 250, Subpart Q — Decommissioning Activities.
• Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, NTL 2018-G03 — Idle Iron Decommissioning Guidance.